The

Business of

Being a Futurist

Wild Cards, Weak Signals & Modulomes

Richard Neville

No-one knows for sure whatÕs going to happen tomorrow,

unless your life is incredibly dull. Even so, a chunk of space

debris could churn up your backyard. Becoming a futurist does

not insulate you from surprise. It is not about picking the winner

of the Melbourne Cup. Nor is about getting the right stuff to

read, to remember and to repeat, and then to forget. Being a

futurist is a state of mind.

A state of mind open to everyone. To some extent, most of us

are futurists without even knowing it; our ripples lapping on far-

flung shores, touching the destinies of others in various ways,

trivial and profound. And thatÕs how itÕs been for about 150,000

years ? fine for Neanderthal Man, fine for your mum and dad.

WhatÕs changed?

Change itself; rushing at us faster than ever before, as fast as

the speed of light, perhaps faster. Several "laws" are powering

the future: 1) MooreÕs Law, not really a law but an "observed

regularity", still holding, which projects the continuing escalation

of computer grunt. 2) MetcalfÕs Law describes the exponential

growth of networks, whose tentacles become ever more

entwined with each new arrival. 3) MonsantoÕs Law states that

our ability to identify & utilise genetic information keeps

expanding, while costs keep shrinking. This is a lucky law for

Monsanto, if not for legless pigs. All the key areas of

scientific research keep accelerating and interacting with each

other.

Innovation in technology changes human behaviour. Mobile

phones give toddlers power beyond precedent. The net has

prevented the extinction of free speech and is revolutionising

the political landscape and marital customs. Genetic

breakthroughs quiver on our doorstep, robots are waiting in the

wings. Other disruptions edge into view: nanotechnology,

quantum computing and our ability to transform complex data

into 3D images and manipulate it to our hearts content, so

anything we can imagine can now be made to look real. By

manipulating microscopic items called quantum dots, solid

state physicists from MIT & Sun Microsystems, say they can

program the building blocks of matter to provide any object we

desire.

While disruption, change and dislocation is nothing new, it has

historically been sporadic & localised. Equilibrium held sway.

Compared to the world since 9/11, the Thirty Years War was a

languid affair. Even the relentlessly bopping baby boomers,

trudging grudgingly to dotage, were dimly aware in their youth

of an ancient rhythm, a season for the ripening of tomatoes, a

time to clock off from the office, a time to turn on, to tune in, to

sell out, a time to invest in the fastest running shoes money can

buy.

In the journey from Fleetwood Mack to the Big Mac to the

Imac, from cyber-tech, robo-tech, bio-tech to nano-tech, weÕve

entered world where tomatoes are never out of season, twins

are for sale on the net, scientists are creating T-bone steak in

petri dishes ("suitable for vegetarians") and living to a hundred

will be a cakewalk. My daughter might even marry a skin

encapsulated robot which can alter its gender at will, like some

of my friends. Your grandchildren may travel to Mars. Or they

may not. Researchers recently created Polio from scratch, but

letÕs hope they havenÕt told the Pentagon. Nano tech allows the

development of a weapon such as the "grey cloud", a self

replicating airborne nano device that can catalyse carbon

dioxide into graphite, creating a solid wall to cover the earth,

block the sun and destroy all intelligent life on Earth. The only

thing left will be Texas.

People respond to this tumult and flux in a number ways:

- They fling themselves to the ground in the foetal position and

wait for the change-storm to pass. Unlikely.

- They pretend it isnÕt happening; often by faking an attitude of

ennui.

- Some embrace change and try to profit from it.

- Others, intoxicated by the cornucopia of novelties become

drooling spectators.

- Many of us range through all of the above, depending on our

mood and circumstances, which is sooo 21st century.

Most peopleÕs focus on the future is so narrow, that they

squander the present in order to provide for a dreary old age.

By their late sixties, theyÕve got the waterview, the Mercedes

and a solid investment fund; and an existential vacuum the size

of a golf course. Prosperous dunderheads. Ill equipped to

relish the present, with a past not worth recalling, they have

actually betrayed their own future with a vision too narrow. I

meet them all the time on the conference circuit. Smartly

dressed CEOÕs on the brink of retirement who ask in a whisper

if itÕs too late to try pot.

Taking care of tomorrow could mean something more. An

unfolding role of the futurist is to foster democratic participation

in imagining, designing and creating alternative futures. To

coax the inner futurist into a higher state of alertness.

It doesnÕt take genius to get acquainted with the key issues

shaping tomorrowÕs business environment, both globally and

locally. The three driving trends are globalisation, the

information revolution, the quest for sustainability. (Keep in

mind that for every trend there is a counter trend).Ten years

ago, working with travel professionals, I forecast the rise of

adventure travel and eco tourism. On todayÕs horizon is 3D

virtual travel (a response to terrorism), the aggregation of

airlines, grey nomads, backpackers from Asia, the desire for

"non corporate" hotels and a quest for spiritual tourism. Also,

could there be a backlash against eco-travel? Vapour trails

and carbon emissions from jets add to global warming, so

perhaps flying off to a distant "eco resort" will be seen as a

contradiction.

In the 90s, financial advisors scoffed at suggestions that future

consumers would want investment funds screened for social

responsibility, sustainability and ethical probity. Today,

advisors often recommend this course. Future financial

products need to be tailored to trends such as the end of

retirement as a concept, the merging of the personal and the

professional and the desire of the middle class to make a

modest contribution to basket case economies. (Perhaps

though a people-to-people micro-credit fund.)

Even industries not normally regarded as cutting edge are

exploring what lies ahead. A recent Sydney conference on "the

future of roads" discussed hydrogen fuel cells, dual mode

automated highways, smart concrete and a vision of "elder

cars" fitted with big-print speedometers, automatic doors and

bedpans.

Hard nosed property developers are starting to sound like

Byron Bay space cadets, as they unfurl plans for fully

sustainable, off-the-grid eco dwellings, catering for a

communal lifestyle, with non stop wireless net access. A form

in San Francisco has created the Modulome, a Ôprefabricated

modular houseÕ which can re-jiggled and furnished to taste,

then shipped anywhere.

Parts of the military in Australia and the US have long been

fans of futurism, all too aware that planning for the wrong type

of war is expensive and dangerous. In 1999 I wandered into a

seminar room at the Washington Hilton, where Dr Steven Metz

of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College

was presenting a slick PowerPoint on Alternative Visions of

Future War. One projection was Net War, defined as "coercive

violence used by complex networks against states,

corporations, non-state organizations or each other". In this

scenario, state-versus-state war "declines in effectiveness and

significance". Few battles erupt between organized militaries.

In Net War, the dominant form of combat is infrastructure

attacks, where "state militaries will be hard pressed to

understand and counter networked enemies". Three years later

this is no longer sounds fanciful.

Germany is a hotbed of futurism. Seventy five per cent of

revenues at Siemens, one of the worldÕs top ten electro

engineering firms, flow from products that are less than 5 years

old. WhatÕs more, this percentage is rising. The Siemens

approach to the future is rigorous, with Innovation Fields

installed in its five major business units. Each one is a creative

hot-house peopled with bright young graduates, who are

charged to push a promising idea to business plan or

prototype.

Thomas Schwair, from the Transportation Field, refers to his

fellow futurists as "creative wizards, entrepreneurs and

technology freaks". One of their roles is to hasten evolution by

designing "holistic trend scenarios" ranging from five to twenty

years into the future. One cash cow that emerged from this

incubator fails to light my fire, though it is bound to be popular

in Canberra. The Finger Tip Sensor links swiftly from a mouse

or an ATM to a fingerprint data base in order to identify,

accept, or reject.

Most companies rely on in-house specialists, who are flat out

staying on top of their subject. IBM was still pinning its hopes

on the mainframe when CasioÕs hand held calculator stormed

the market. Sensing this as a "weak signal", a smart futurist

would have suggested IBM put portability into its product,

rather than wait for Bill Gates to come along and steal their

thunder.

At its simplest level, futurism involves scanning the environment

for signals of change in five key areas: society, technology,

economics, ecology and politics. The next step is to focus on

the trends relevant to your business and to play around with

their implications, step by step. A single trend can have a

multitude of repercussions. The extension of the human life

span, for instance, will re-shape government policies, incite

inter generational irritation, put pressure on the environment

and turn hearing aids into fashion items.

Wild cards, weak signals and alternative scenarios are among

an array of techniques designed to widen horizons. That Nike

has spent a fortune creating its first yoga shoe, is a weak

signal that one day we will all stop running around in circles.

WhatÕs missing from corporate futurism is an appreciation of

the personal. An accelerating age requires a mind-shift.

TodayÕs management skills need to transcend the industrial

dualities of us/them, leader/follower, good/evil, with us/against

usÉ The need to collaborate creatively requires deep

listening, group empathy, adaptability, acceptance of criticism,

ease with paradox and much more.

As new futures approach, it is time to ask, what lies beyond the

age of information? Terrorism muted by true global

democracy, poverty diminished, cheap renewable energy,

global governance, one nation under Planet Earth? Or an age

of machines smarter than us, the Matrix unbounded? Perhaps

a Post Material economy which caters to intangible desires,

such as nostalgia, meaning, stories, self esteem, adventure,

philosophy and spirituality? Anything is possible. Which makes

it a good time to raise high the beam of your foresight.

Basically, anyone who wants can be a futurist.

Partial List of RichardÕs Conference Topics:

How to Harness the Future

Highly paid experts often describe the kind of future their

clients desire, while research reveals that the "holistic

views" of non specialists are usually much more on the mark.

This presentation offers tips and tools for people to scan the

environment on their own, to get a feel for the trends and

driving forces which are shaping tomorrow, even to read the

footprints of the future in the sand.

Nothing about the future scares me. You just have to be

aware of whatÕs coming and get yourself prepared for it.

Ice-T, Rapper

The Next Fifty Years

Brave New World or Byron Bay? What happens when

machines outsmart humans? (Sooner than you think).. Are you

ready for neuro-marketing, Brain Fingerprinting and the

Asexual Revolution that Goes Beyond Cloning? "At the

beginning of the 21st Century", writes Peter Atkins, an Oxford

professor, "chemists are in complete command of matter". But

have they lost their senses?

The Future of Food, Transport, Sex, Sport,

Schools, Cities, Lifestyle, Energy É You Name It

The grand overview. Everything you need to know about

escaping the prison of the past.

New Management Skills for the 21st Century

The pace of innovation, the democratisation of creativity, the

workplace rise of the human potential movement .These are some

of the factors helping to spark todayÕs Mind-Shift. What the

future holds for you depends on what you hold for the future,

which is why we need to cultivate an array of adaptive skills. A

seminar which lays the groundwork for building a psychological

bridge to the future.

The Project for the New American Century verus the

Coming Age of Global Governance

The deeper meaning of the Terror Wars. The paradox of

globalisation. Re-inventing economics. The new roles for

cities, the world of work, eco warriors and the United Nations.

The brilliant images on this page are taken from the Queensland Art GalleryÕs

1999 Show, Beyond the Future: The Third Asia Pacific Triennial of

Contemporary Art. In order of appearance: 1. Cosmic Mythology, 1998, Oil

on Canvas, Surendran Nair. 2. Journey of a Yellow Man, No.11:

Multiculturalism. Performance at the Substation, Singapore 1997: Lee Wen.

3. Pisupo Mk 11 1996 Corned Beef Cans: Michel Tuffery.